UK and the EU

Well, I think Theresa May has been mature during the time she has had to handle BREXIT. She's had all the pressures of the doubters, the angry and disappointed people who wanted to stay in, the organisations with agendas of staying in the EU as it benefited them rather than the UK who financed the Court cases against the Government. She also gently reminded the EU that any malicious, spiteful, actions leading to penalties and unfair agreements could have large financial consequences for the EU. So while some on the EU Bureaucrats may be holding great dislike for the UK, and it's decision of shaking their control off the country, , they have been given notice that she can play Hardball too.

The reaction of some of the prominent EU Bureaucrats has been hostile from the start even before the Referendum, issuing warnings of the dire consequences to the UK, of the actions that the EU would take in the negotiations should the Referendum go the way they didn't want. That hostility hasn't gone away in the minds of those EU Bureaucrats who fear the changes that BREXIT will bring financially, and politically, to the EU. They will, despite all the nice words from some, try to be as awkward as they can in efforts to use penalties as an example to those EU members who want to, or are thinking of, leave the EU.
I think that is one of the reasons that Theresa May has stated "no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal." She's basically saying in Brawlers Speak "You want to play rough?, well, watch out, so can I." Any other attitude would place us at a disadvantage in negotiations where the other side has taken us off their Birthday and Christmas Card list.

 

I believe that to be the case ever since De Gaulle


When we kept the Sterling instead of adopting the Euro that infuriated/irritated the EU Bureaucrats, Germany and France and making enemies for us. I think that decision was an exceedingly smart one as it gave us a door to leave without the pressures, strains and stresses that would face Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain on leaving the Euro and starting with a newly evaluated currency of their own where they would face the penalties and pressures from the EU who would try to weaken their economies. So the very act of not joining in the Euro has always set us apart. And, whether you like it or not, the UK has never been walking hand in hand politically, or financially, in complete agreement with the European countries. That has, partially been due to strong Nationalism not just from us but from each of the EU countries as well. So, I personally don't think it's been the UK that's been awkward but rather the fact that we have recognised that the use of a "one size fits all" currency has not proved to be the tool where all EU members economies benefit. Greece, Italy would leave the EU without shutting the door if it weren't for the financial markers of debt that the EU hold over them threatening bankruptcy should they leave. Denmark is threatening to leave, France [if Marine Le Pen wins] will leave the EU, so while BREXIT is taking us into unknown waters the EU problem pigeons are coming home to roost. If the Doomsayers in the UK think we're making the wrong decision and prophesying us getting bitten on the bum that's fine. But, I think it's time that we all recognised that there is a rise of Nationalism within the major members of the EU, that there is a great imbalance in the various economies which has been used politically to maintain the strength of Germany and France, that had we joined the Euro we would have been in a financially worse state than we are now. Our economy recovered from the global financial crash better,more quickly, more strongly than any other member of the EU. Was that because we had the Euro?, no, I don't think so, it was because our currency is trusted and respected and has been for centuries. You think the UK is in a bad state and will be even more so because of BREXIT? Then I would advise that you step back and look at the EU,without the bias of wanting to be "secure in a Club",where there is great imbalance within the membership, where political agendas of the countries clash with the political agenda of the unelected Bureaucrats of the EU which wants all countries to meld into one Federal State, where bullying and pressures are put on those countries not wanting to lose their financial and political control within their own borders. So I think it's the EU that's getting bitten on the bum because,after we leave, it's problems have only just begun.

 

"European Council President Donald Tusk
"It is us who today are responsible for confronting reality with all kinds of utopias -- a utopia of Europe without nation states, a utopia of Europe without conflicting interests and ambitions, a utopia of Europe imposing its own values on the external world. Obsessed with the idea of instant and total integration, we failed to notice that ordinary people, the citizens of Europe, do not share our Euro-enthusiasm. Disillusioned with the great visions of the future, they demand that we cope with the present reality better than we have been doing until now... Euroscepticism has become an alternative to those illusions

The agreement was not one where there was no option to leave the EU. All members of the EU have that option and, as I pointed out, Denmark and possibly France could leave if the Nationalist win the elections. Italy and Greece would have left years ago but for the threat of bankruptcy being used against them by the EU. Article 50 is that legal instrument of option that we have used, are using, in a quiet, logical way, to the letter. The negotiations are going to be hard and unfriendly because the EU will want, despite their protestations, to show other unhappy members that they will suffer should they do so. Trade agreements will follow, but you will find that money follows money and that trading and business will carry on despite the Politicians saying otherwise because they have to answer to big business that holds their economies together.

 

Well, in reality that's not quite accurate, Anthony. We have teams of negotiators conducting preliminary talks now despite the EU Ministers saying otherwise. Businesses on both sides of the borders are talking to Governments and other Businesses applying pressures on Politicians to make sure that the roads of finance and trading are not blocked by bureaucracy. The politicians will posture, postulate, gesture, and make noises but it is the behind the scenes business negotiations that will bear weight and they have been going on since the Referendum was put forward.

 

From what I've read of the Lisbon Treaty there doesn't seem to be any mechanism to force us to pay any sum of money although Junker and Co. have been insisting that we will have to do so.

We don't actually have to trigger Article 50 (but Theresa has said she will) to get out of the EU, but can repeal the 1972 European Communities Act. That wouldn't be a particularly good idea because it would bypass any simple agreements on trade deals and put us back at the starting blocks. However, the European Commission would want to avoid that as it would not be good for them either.

There has been plenty of rhetoric from both sides giving dire warnings of punitive actions but these are standard political tools for the opening gambit of negotiation.

An interesting, but silly thought.

As a part of the organisation of the EU and having put our (more than ) fair share of funding into it, do we own some of the structure of the EU? If so, then can we have back our bits of the parliament buildings in Brussels, Strasbourg and Luxembourg? Surely, if we are getting divorced from the main body we are entitled to our fair share or they would not be entitled to any forward funding from us!