After Brexit - am I stupid or what?

I reckon it is a toss up between Italy and Poland to be next out the door. Mind you, once Germany realises just how deep they are in the financial mire without the UK money coming in, and they see their export market in trouble (be it restricted or increased tariffs) they will likely brick it and that will trigger the collapse.

 

There are two main, recognised benefactors and purse string holders of the EU and those are France and Germany although most people think that Germany is the at the top of the power pyramid it's not really accurate. France is the only Nuclear armed country in Europe and will be the sole Nuclear armed member in the EU after 31 December 2020 and that will, in effect, put it at the top of the tree after that date and give it more clout than Germany. Germany is on the brink of another recession while if you take a closer look at France it's in a better financially and industrially position at this moment in time.
Most of the EU legislation is being proposed by the French Law makers in the EU rather than the Germany and while the EU officials are unelected and publicly stated to be independent of any EU member they do nod their heads in the direction of both Germany and France.
With the UK leaving a good proportion of the EU's remaining budget will have to be redirected from the Eastern European countries who are given financial "sweeteners" to keep them in line and also ensure they are reasonably compliant and stay within the EU. Without those "sweeteners" it's quite possible Poland and Hungary could quit and the EU has no real debt markers against them to keep them from leaving.
Italy is a different "Kettle of Fish" as the EU knows it controls, in reality, Italy's national budget and that Italy is in debt to the EU to the value of Trillions of Euros which it, obviously, cannot pay back and the repeated threat by the EU to withdraw support and ask for repayment of those debts should any Italian Government of whatever "colour" propose to leave the EU. The present Government is anti-EU but knows leaving would bring immediate financial ruin.
Greece is, although disillusioned of the EU politics. more compliant recognising that it is really in the same situation as Italy. So it's quite possible that the first countries that might possibly leave the EU first would be the Eastern European countries and not the Mediterranean countries.
So, it's probably all "up in the air" as to whether or not the EU holds together or falls apart.....it's going to be interesting to watch over the next few years.

 

Personally, I think this tiny island does have cause to worry Mike - as does France, Germany, Italy, Japan and a number of other countries.... for the danger is not going to be disagreements between those nations, but rather from China and it's allies.

We have been inadvertently feeding, funding and strengthening China for many years and they ARE hell bent on world domination.

 

I suspect that is because while there won't be unlimited access to our waters by EU countries, there is already quota contracts in place to allow other countries to fish in our waters. Which countries, I am unsure.

The thing to remember here though is that those contracts will expire at some point, and we are under no obligation to renew them - - equally, we do not have a fishing fleet of our own (mostly as the EU had them quite literally torched) to allow us to go out and start hauling in all these fish to sell from January.... it is going to take years to build up our own fishing fleet again, so having these contracts makes sense.

 

What he's saying, indirectly, clanless, is that he/the EU is threatening to block the sale of UK fish into the EU but it is no more than a threat said in a fit of pique. Actually, the import of UK fish stocks into Europe was mainly done by foreign fishing companies rather than by UK companies who specialised in local premium varieties of fish and shellfish.
Quotas are a different matter and those were borne out of EU rules, agreements and regulations and those will finish on 31 December 2020 as those rules, agreements and regulations will no longer be valid. New licences for foreign companies to fish in UK waters would have to be granted if any of the devolved UK Governments wanted that to happen. However, there is a line of thought that UK fishing waters are still in a state of recovery after the over fishing that took places some years ago and so perhaps letting the various diminished UK fleets develop naturally over time would not be a bad thing in the long run.
The one thing that has become obvious, as an effect of the nearing "No Deal BREXIT", is the increasing reluctance of France to enforce the immigration coastal border control and, basically, escorting crowded, unsafe, craft out of French waters in the Channel. They're trying to justify not stopping the craft by saying it would be unsafe to stop the boats and bring them back to French shores while ignoring the fact that it is unsafer to let the craft try to cross the great distance of the busiest shipping channel in the world.

 

(a) The UK, scrungee, is not politically or geographically part of the European Continent, regarded as European i.e. we are an Island Nation and never have stood as Europeans nor have the Europeans ever regarded us as Europeans.
(b) Because I was confining my post to BREXIT I referring to those European members of the EU and the UK. To, be honest, in reality, because of the vast geographical size of Russia it has it "feet" in several regions and is not solely European. According to latest polls by independent research data organisations most Russians in whatever region do not regard themselves as European, partly because of the history of Wars and partly because of the difference in politics

 

Their all 'Continentals'