Ukraine

I was reading in the news today that 'Kremlin insiders' are starting to openly complain (presumably anonymously) that Putin is irrational, and that he's not listening to his military advisors and senior staff.

Of course that could just be propaganda, but if it's true then that coupled with the mass exodus and rising dissent among the public could be an indicator of a brewing coup de etat.

Maybe it's been there all along. Maybe Kremlin is Russian for Crumbling.

 

You have to wonder how the country got back to where it is now after the Gorbechev days.

If any country has taken a backwards step its Russia.

I notice that when he died recently he was not considered a great leader, by many Russians, but he at least came across as a decent person.

 

Well, Putin didn't like Gorbachev, so I guess that means the people also didn't like him. After all, when you live in a nation where your opinion is only allowed if it matches the official opinion of the state, otherwise there's a chance of misfortune, what else would people think?

We can only go by our interactions with Russia before Putin turned completely insane. We were close to best buddies. Britain, Europe and the USA all collaborated on many things. Russia played a key role in science collaboration with NASA and ESA, we traded together, militarily our side occasionally trained with Russia, and even in times of disagreement, such as the Syria situation, Russia and NATO would communicate to try to make sure neither side shot each other.

I'm not saying it was all rosie, but we got on. Ordinary Russian people had freedoms they didn't have in the days of the iron curtain and Russia had good prospects for a good future.

Putin blew that really in 2014 except the world turned a blind eye to the annexation of Crimea to a large extent. This year's invasion was obviously taken slightly more seriously, which probably came as a surprise to all in Russia considering how we didn't really bat an eyelid to their previous invasions.

 

In a speech to teachers on Russian teachers' day, Mr Putin said he would "calmly develop" the annexed territories.

But Andrey Kartopolov, the chairman of the State Duma defence committee, told state media that Russia needed to stop lying about what was happening on the battlefield, saying that Russians were not stupid.

Mr Kartopolov's funeral will be held in the Moscow crematorium next Monday 10th Oct!

 

I'm wondering what Putin is up to, Russia is losing ground and not doing too much to stop it .

Either they are incapable of doing much, which seems unlikely or any time now this is going to take a sudden turn for the worst.

 

The nuclear threat genuinely worries me. Not for me personally, I've lived long enough, any more is just extra bonus time. But my kids have barely lived yet.

I take small comfort from the knowledge that some very good intelligence services will be watching Russia like a hawk, and although nothing is being released to the public for obvious reasons, I have no doubt there's a plan for if Russia does start preparing to launch nukes.

I watched a video on Forces News months ago that showed a surprisingly large amount of NATO assets arriving in Poland. It didn't look like simple reassurance, it looked more like an entire war fighting force, so I guess they're ready should Putin decide to escalate.

 

It's good to be ready but I'm not sure that would really help in all out war.

Some kind of limited nuclear attack?
Not sure that is possible.

Let's just hope that there are a few people in the Kremlin ready with the straight jacket should Putin go down that road.
I can't think even brainwashed Russians can see any winners in that event.

 

I think the limited tactical option is bad enough for two reasons. First the obvious reason. Even a small nuke is still a weapon of mass destruction. A lot of people would be killed immediately, with lots more dying over the following weeks, either as a direct result, like burns or radiation poisoning, or through disease and starvation as the infrastructure in the blast zone will be gone.

Secondly, and even more dangerous, is the precedent it would set. Firing the first one will be a tough decision, even for a psychologist. Firing the second, is just business as usual.

We should also remember that tactical nukes are not little bombs. They might be little compared to the strategic ICBMs, but they're still a massive blast. I think I once read that they're on the scale of the bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Fun physics fact: you can't make a really small nuclear explosion. Uranium needs a certain minimum mass to go critical. If I remember correctly from my school days, and I might not, but I seem to recall that the minimum amount needed is 9 kg. Doesn't sound like much, but when you apply Einstein's famous E = MC squared, that's still a hell of a big bang.

 

Is it my imagination but the advances that Ukraine seem to have made have come since they have been using modern artillery.

Just get the feeling that Russian artillery has been on a similar scale to carpet bombing compared to precision artillery that Ukraine are now using.
You really do have to wonder how advanced much of the stuff that Russia has, even their tanks appear to be fair game, and air support doesn't seem to be that effective.

 

That appears to be the case.

From what I can gather, most of the kit right across the former Soviet Union is still Soviet era.

Putin and his cronies have tried to imply that they're holding their super advanced world beating modern kit back for now in case they have to fight NATO, but given that his forces are not doing great, so he's considering the nuclear option, you kind of have to wonder if he has anything in between what he's using now and the nuclear option.

Personally I think he's full of horse manure.

It might just be propaganda, but there's been reports that when they've sifted through the remains of Russian drones and missiles in Ukraine, they've found the kind of electronics that you'd find in domestic kitchen appliances.

Also in the news yesterday, from Reuters, there's an analysis of which nations are supplying the most military kit to Ukraine. Currently Russia is Ukraine's biggest weapons supplier. Obviously not on purpose, but they've pieced together open source intel and concluded that the Ukrainians are collecting so much equipment that the Russians have abandoned as they've legged it that now Russia has become the single biggest supplier.

 

I wonder how much of a threat Putons nuclear arsenal really is. Soviet-era missiles probably with more coats of paint than maintenance. I think the west will have the silos targeted and as soon as there are any signs of possible launch, cruise missiles will destroy them where they are sitting. It doesn't take nukes to stop them either and without detonation, the risk of radioactivity is slight and localized.

 

Cruise missiles are not very fast, they fly low and hope to not get picked up on radar, as far as I know.

Not sure if we have anything designed to actually take our missile silos.
I tend to agree that probably only 50% maybe of the Russian arsenal might still be in working order, but that is still a lot.