Ukraine

but which way?

 

The number of tanks we've sent makes it more a symbolic gesture than a practical one.

I've come to the conclusion that 'the west' has no real intention of defeating Russia militarily. This current situation is just a much more violent repeat of the space race, when the USA just kept on spending as long as the USSR matched them, until they ran out of money. Same now. Support Ukraine just enough to keep the situation largely stalemate until Russia runs out of dosh and collapses.

 

I agree with that part.

But, when you boil it all down, without getting totally militarily involved you can only go so far, Ukraine must be running out of people who are capable to use what they are sent regardless of how much training they are supplied with.

Russia is full of cannon fodder, in the end it might just come down to numbers.

 

There's a picture circulating around - showing a UK Challenger next to the Soviet era tanks that Putin is now sending to fight in Ukraine. One looks like a tonka toy compared to the other.

Also reports coming out that Putin can't make more tanks - no one will sell him the electronics that go inside - much like he can't make cars with ABS and air bags.

Couldn't have said it better - I reckon this is the long game. Putin is burning through money so fast - he won't be ale to fund the war beyond 2023. Despite all his bluff and bravado - in terms of economy - Russia is on par with Italy or Chile.

 

Or UK.

 

The UK had only 227 Challenger 2 tanks before sending those to Ukraine.
Not exactly bristling with fire-power.

 

I wouldn’t want to get in the way of ‘em though To be fair, it’s probably a fair proportion/percentage of the NATO arsenal.

 

In reality the main use of the Challenger tank and the Leopard was to defend/attack the Russians whenever this unfortunate time arrived. They should be issued in adequate numbers to achieve their purpose. It is unlikely they will be needed for invasion defence of the Kent beaches.

 

I did have a page up the other day of which countries have the most tanks, some of it was expected, but some was surprising.
The UK was a long way down the list in actual numbers.

 

There's an article in the news today, albeit from one of the tabloids, that says a think tank suggested that Putin might use nukes in Ukraine if he feels like he can't win. They said it would serve no tactical advantage, but they might do it out of spite to save face.

 

I think he's more likely to use chemical weapons, its a bit more limited and without all the nuclear fallout that is very likely to spread into neighbouring countries.

 

There is precedent. Japan was doing pretty well in WW2 until it got nuked, then they promptly surrendered.

And logically, what other outcome could there be? If Putin put a tactical nuke on Ukraine, NATO would be highly unlikely to risk all out nuclear war, and Ukraine would have no way to effectively retaliate.

 

I think because of Japan the use of nuclear weapons are less likely.

As far as I know the first and only use, in anger, since 1945.

The option is obviously there and Putin knows it, the threat has up till now been kept under control, right through the Cold War years.

 

Yep. That will prove Putin to be the ultimate failure. I believe there were some very tense moments in the cold war, including a race to capture lost nukes, and at least one incident when a malfunction in an early warning system led both sides to believe an attack had been initiated. Yet despite all that, no nukes were launched.

Then along comes Putin. Not only unable to maintain a tentative peace, but unable to defeat his disorganised and under equipped next door neighbour. If he launches a nuke, the world will have no reason to doubt that he's just rubbish in every way.

As a related aside, people read about tactical nukes as opposed to strategic nukes, and read that they are battlefield nukes, much smaller than the strategic nukes people worry about. The bomb that dropped on Hiroshima was about 20 kilo tonne. It annihilated a whole city. Today's tactical nukes have about the same explosive force.