AV, any thoughts

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussion' started by pete, Apr 19, 2011.

  1. shiney

    shiney President, Grumpy Old Men's Club Staff Member

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    I think Fidgetsmum has analysed it very well.

    Assuming the government decide to implement the result of the referendum (highly debateable) you will have either FPTP or AV.

    If it's FPTP then no change.

    If AV then there is likely to be almost no change :heehee:. Now comes an unsupported generalisation :scratch: :D. Lets, for agument's sake reckon that AV got 60% of the referendum vote. In an election, those people that voted for FPTP will still only tick one box (for them it is still FPTP), a number of AV supporters (and I think a large number) will not be keen on adding second or third votes because they don't like the options. So it is likely that over 50% of the voters will, in effect, be voting FPTP.

    Now we come to how it will actually work. Normally, most of the votes go to three and sometimes four parties/candidates. Vote number one will go to their normal candidate and the minority parties will gradually be dropped off the bottom as the succesive counts proceed. If you have a large number of candidates then, after x amount of counts, you have only transferred a miniscule number of votes - which will make very little difference to those at the top (so still FPTP at this stage).

    It is only when you get to the major parties that a significant number of votes may be transferred but at this stage you haven't yet changed much from FPTP.

    When candidate/party number three gets dropped you are now making a significant difference to the other two - but are you? You are now transferring all the minority votes (that already haven't been transferred to numbers one and two) plus the original number three votes. Of all those votes - 40% (just using my referendum assumptions, which are not supportable :)) will drop by the wayside as they were FPTP voters and a further percentage will also drop by the wayside being AV voters who didn't want to pick any of the options available to them.

    These remaining votes will then be transferred. What is the likelyhood that they would be transferred in any significantly different proportion than the original votes for numbers one and two? Remember, that the nearer to 50% the vote gets the less diverse it is likely to be.

    I think that for the AV referendum vote to end up being a be successful voting system it needs to be demonstrated that a very large proportion of the voters actually wanted AV - and will use it.

    I actually think that a large proportion of the population don't give a damn one way or the other or don't understand what they are being offered with either system.

    My cynical thought is that the government will say that the referendum is not really valid because not enough of the electorate voted.
     
  2. pete

    pete Growing a bit of this and a bit of that....

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    Just got another blank page, cant go through all that again, sorry.
     
  3. ARMANDII

    ARMANDII Low Flying Administrator Staff Member

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    Shiney, I've just read your last post, reread it, and then read it again, and now I've got a headache:help::heehee: I can't think of a simpler system than one person, one vote, used once, but we still manage to let the system be distorted and manipulated by the Politicians and the Establishment. AV would be worse as the distortions and manipulations would be more complex but in simplistic terms would be more "Smoke and mirrors".:rolleyespink::what::wallbang:
     
  4. PeterS

    PeterS Total Gardener

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    I feel we are missing a point here. I don't think anyone is ever voted into power. I think politicians only ever get voted out. Look at the Arab nations, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya etc. They all know who they want out - but don't know who they want in.

    As long as the economy was doing well, the Labour party was left in power, but when the economy went sour Brown was voted out. I don't think it mattered who was voted in. Anyone who is voted in must abandon their promises and deal with reality. Its always been the way. So I am all for some varient of Shiney's system - put them in the order of who you don't want.
     
  5. clueless1

    clueless1 member... yep, that's what I am:)

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    I don'tunderstand the alternative system, but I understand that it isn't the right way to do things. Nor is the current way.

    As it stands at the moment, it isn't the number of votes that wins the day for a particular party, its the number of seats. That kind of seems like the same thing at first, because its votes that win seats, but it is very different.

    Lets say that I want to vote for the Raving Loony Party, but they Raving Loony Party hasn't been able to afford to register a candidate in my constituency, I simply can't vote for them, so in effect I'm denied my vote. Lets say that 51% of the residents in my ward all wanted to vote for the Loonies, then the majority of people in my ward get denied their vote and a minority get to decide for us. That isn't democracy.

    The blatantly obvious way to do a fair vote at national level is to allow everybody in the nation to vote for the party they would like to take power, so if I wanted to vote Loonies but they didn't have a candidate in my area, it wouldn't matter because I could vote for them anyway.

    This actually happened to me the very first time I was old enough to vote. I was all set to vote 'Green', until my dad explained they might not have a candidate in our ward. They didn't. Living in a village at the time, my choices were very limited. I was allowed to vote Labour, who admitted that wanted to sign over our country to Europe, or Conservative, who I knew from first hand experience had destroyed whole communities. I didn't vote for either.
     
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    • shiney

      shiney President, Grumpy Old Men's Club Staff Member

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      Can you imagine what my head felt like as I was writing it! :rolleyespink: :loll:

      Peter, maybe we should call it the "Parties I Don't Like" voting system - or PIDL, in it's short form. :thumbsup:

      I'm an "Oi, Referendum, No!" as Harry Enfield would say. :happydance:
       
    • Lyn

      Lyn Gardener

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      Stupid idea, so No way.
      I vote for who I want to win not who might win if they have enough 2nd places etc.
      In fact i don't think i can be bothered with any of them any more and might just not bother with voting ever again.:)
       
    • Val..

      Val.. Confessed snail lover

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      Lyn, I feel exactly the same way!!!!!

      Val
       
    • Makka-Bakka

      Makka-Bakka Gardener

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      It's only those snivelling gits of lib dems that want to change!

      In Northern Ireland PR was forced on the majority by the British government to appease the terrorists, with the result that terrorists, apologists for terrorists and mouth piece for terrorists got themselves elected with the result that ordinary people are now partially ruled by gunmen and bombers!

      We could end up here with sharia law if certain people got their way.

      Democracy is not just about being given the vote and actually voting, more importantly it is about accepting how others have voted and accepting the result, not screaming there is no democracy in this country!
       
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      • clueless1

        clueless1 member... yep, that's what I am:)

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        There is no democracy in this country. You're right that its not just about being given the vote. It would be a democracy if we were all given the same range of options. We aren't.

        If the party we want to vote for can't afford the £600 or so to put up a candidate in your ward, you can't vote for that party, end of story.

        As I mentioned earlier, the first time I was old enough to vote, because I lived in a small town that wasn't considered particularly important, my choices were Labour or Conservative. Not even Lib Dems had a candidate there, never mind the smaller parties. So that meant that I, and about 5,000 others in my area, were deprived of the same range of choices as would be found in the larger towns.

        When the range of options as to who will run the whole country differs depending on the perceived importance of a specific area, that is not democracy. When the range of options as to who will run the country depends on which party has the most money and can therefore afford to register the most candidates, that too is not democracy.

        I don't know what it is we have in Britain, its certainly not a dictatorship (thank the gods) or communism, but nor is it a democracy.
         
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        • pete

          pete Growing a bit of this and a bit of that....

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          I'm thinking you hitting the spot there clueless.
          Too many votes are being disregarded in the system we have now.

          As I said at the beginning, I think we are being offered the most stupid of the Alternatives, in order to get it voted out, then they, the politicians can proclaim we were given the option of change and didn't want it.

          this sums it up..
           
        • shiney

          shiney President, Grumpy Old Men's Club Staff Member

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