Brexit -am I stupid or what

Nothing to do with Project Fear whatsoever, just commonsense and very basic economics. The EU cost the UK nine billion in 2018. Compare that to the latest estimate by the OBR (so certainly conservative, not dramatic) of the cost to the UK exchequer of a no deal Brexit - thirty billion a year! The OBR is looking at unemployment rising to five percent and house values dropping by anything up to twenty percent dependant on the area of the country that you look at. With my partner working for a major investment bank (in Frankfurt since January instead of London) I have (or haven't) seen several internal discussion papers/reports predicting worse in best case scenarios, far worse in extremis. Investment into the UK is considered to be dismal bearing in mind the low value of Sterling. Many international owners of major UK businesses have been in a 'care and maintain' scenario as far as investment in the UK goes with many household names such as Panasonic moving their EU headquarters to Europe. The Bank Of America has taken the situation so seriously that it has spent $400 million on setting up offices in Dublin - that is not shifted assets! From 29 respondents of the 269 financial service businesses who have opened offices in the EU who responded to a request by NewFinancial.org they estimate that assets shifted so far is $800 billion, 10% of what was held in London.

https://newfinancial.org/wp-content...3-New-Financial-Brexitometer-EXT-HIGH-RES.pdf

Even Jacob Rees-Moggs company (Somerset Capital Management) took the threat of Brexit seriously enough to open an office in Dublin telling investors in its prospectus that “The impact of such events on a fund is difficult to predict but there may be detrimental implications for the value of certain of the fund’s investments, or its ability to enter into transactions or to value or realise such investments” .
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A trade deal with the US? Jeez, we need deals with markets where we are net exprters more than we need deals with markets where we are net importers. And proper trade deals take years to negotiate, they do not happen in weeks.
As we move away from the EU we are moving to the role of rule-taker, not rule-maker as we were in our biggest market.

Right, rant over. I'm off to crawl back under my stone for another few weeks now

 

As I understand it we are a net importer from Europe rather than a net exporter.

Well that's why we won't be able to funcion if we leave and there will be shortages?

As to banking, it does nothing for me, never has done and never will, because I aint got no money.

Oh and they keep telling us house prices need to fall.
That's why everything is disappearing under concrete.

 

Sounds like our "equalization" payments. One province gets the lion's share of the money put in the pot by a couple of provinces, has almost luxurious social servicds such as $10 a day daycare, and in this way justifies needing the money. And because they carp so much and threatened to separate, tney bet away with it!

I'd love to see this formula corrected, but that's pipe dreams.

 

One sentence that proves that the referendum was undemocratic! Democracy is based on truth, not the lies that Boris, JRM and the rest of the cabal spread about. In 2018 the UK paid (less the rebate) £13.2 billion and received back £4.3 billion making a net contribution of £8.9 billion. Source? www.parliament.uk

edit - not an attack on you personally at all. Lots of people have bought into these untruths that were spread about and given air by the right wing media.

 

Another point made that shows the distorted view of EU membership that large numbers of the UK population have been fed and bought into (once again, this is not a personal attack). It costs the UK £9 billion to gain tariff free trade to the value of £274 billion. I can absolutely guarantee that we will lose more than £9 billion worth of trade if we leave with no deal. The UK will still be buying EU goods with tariffs because the UK cannot replace what we buy from home sources. 80% of the UK economy is based on the service sector. Professional service exports (business consultancy, scientific, financial etc) accounted for just shy of 30% of UK exports to the EU in 2017.

Anyway you sods! I was just gonna make one post and then politely withdraw for another two or three weeks!!!

 

In all honesty. I have to admit to knowing now't about politics just as most MP's. The speaker of the House. Bercow. Who is he. What are his powers etc, if any.
The way at times he openly takes the, 'P' out of members. So much of what spills out of his mouth IMO is c***. I sat through watching him giving a debate at the Oxford Union. To the ordinary person, it was loads and loads of words. I felt like grabbing my thesaurus and to attempt to make something of his pontfications.

 

Democracy is not democracy when one side misrepresents the truth (at best, more often than not just lied) for their own advantage prior to a poll. Boris was at the heart of the leave campaign once he had decided which side he thought would win, as you recall when asked after the referendum was announced he said that he didn't know which side he would support as he hadn't really thought about Europe! Then before the referendum he also wrote his piece for the Daily Telegraph explaining how he would be backing remain which was unpublished as it did not chime with editorial thinking and had to be rewritten.

We are truly a divided nation. The only truth over this is the truth that we like.

I had assumed that the WTO lie had been discredited months ago. Our WTO 'schedule' has run into opposition at the WTO (schedules can take several years to go through) and it can take just as long to place the relevant statutes into law (nine statutes and anything up to six hundred statutary instruments I'm led to believe) as well as the relevant regulatory and enforcement bodies. But worst of all, if we offer such terms to one WTO member then we have to apply it to the other 162 members as well - we cannot pick and chose. And better still, nobody is obliged to reciprocate towards our exports! We won't even mention Article 24, para 5 subpara B as Boris was very publicly humiliated over that one on the Today program when he was forced to admit that he had never read subparaC and had no idea what it said before the leadership vote Yet the Tory faithful still lumbered this fool upon us!

We will always disagree over the democratic status of that refendum.

Anyway, my turn to travel this weekend so I'm back in Frankfurt with my beloved.

 

Laughable, remainers talking about "democracy".

Democracy died in the UK when the remainers ignored the referendum 3 years ago. The UK will never be the same again.

Eventually N.Ireland will join with Ireland, Scotland will go its own way and England and Wales will do their own thing.

This whole saga could have and should have been done better and quicker so we could have got a better deal without having had to suffer this nonsense for the last 3 years.

The cracks in society will never heal now and the animosity between the the two sides will become more vitriolic.