Corona Virus Treatment

Ooops..Metre

 

Other than accuracy of statistics actual numbers, both of deaths and infections, in the community etc. wider tests won't add any value to policy decisions.

Comparison with other countries also has no bearing. I keep hearing idiotic press comments like "Deaths in USA has overtaken Italy". Population of USA is 330M and Italy 60M, so until USA has 5.5 times as many deaths as Italy it certainly hasn't overtaken it ... and Italy reported all cases early on as "Pneumonia", so their figure is "low" ... so we are back to accuracy of stats again

So long as we continue testing consistently then that will provide comparative information about when we are over the peak. Death peak will be later then infection peak. From those figures the government and NHS etc. can plan. It doesn't matter whether the Statistic is "Total infections vs. Total Deaths" or "Infections in hospital admissions vs. hospital deaths", either of those is fine for the purposes of planning, and the second is a lot more reliable and easy to come by.

Only reasons for widespread testing would be to get people with no / mild symptoms to self isolate, as Korea has done very successfully, and so that people who have been infected can return to work. But that needs a "has had it" test rather than a "has got it" test. And there is significant uncertainty about whether you can catch it again ... so "safe for work" may not actually be. Plus I am sure scientists would like to have a "blind test" of a large sample to have an actual percentage infection rate of the public at large (and, indeed, in the future we might like to have actually conducted that research ... so as to have answers questions about the extent to which ethnic communities are more susceptible - as hearsay is suggesting? and so on.) But as other countries have already done that no doubt there is already enough data, and I doubt that UK-specific data would add significant cultural / ethnic difference to be worth doing.

 

Pete, I don't know where you get your info but the numbers are here last column ...

Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,929,079 Cases and 119,754 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Then if you click on UK and scroll down you get daily info, here is yesterdays ...

Department of Health and Social Care on Twitter

It confirms what @shiney says that the numbers are understated in deaths because it is only hospital deaths counted.

 

I hear the press saying "Lots of deaths in care homes". If someone gets really poorly in a care home don't they go to hospital? I'm sure not all, and I am sure not none ... but I haven't heard anything that tells me whether "most" get to hospital, or "few".

"Widespread Infections" in care homes I understand - sadly they are the most vulnerable group.

 

I see Austria is allowing small shops and garden centers to open.

 

I was just passing on what was said by somebody interviewed on the BBC.
Personally I don't trust any figures, wherever they come from, as I don't think anyone knows the truth. They all seem to have their own different ways of gathering information.

This same person was saying that testing is a pretty pointless operation any way as you can test some one today and they could be negative but be positive by tomorrow, which I think makes sense.
He went on to say until they get an anti body test that works we will all pretty much be in the dark as to what the real situation is.

 

Some people still don't understand how serious the situation is:

Police stop family on 500-mile Lake District trip

I think that Boris needs to change the law to make penalties far more harsh. Perhaps a £1,000 fine or jail sentence might make these people think twice before they set out for a jolly - from the virus hot spot of the UK.

 

Ok folks, what question's will the media ask at 5pm, BBC1 today. I'll start off, "When will the lock-down be relaxed"

 

Armandii

 

It is being manufactured here in Canada with the same people who invented it. There is also testing on a 15 minute test that is not great at early detection but does detect antibodies and the cost will be $10 per unit.

Separating the sick from the uninfected and those already with antibodies is paramount as @pete said.

I really think they need to remove people from old folks homes. Disinfect the entire facility and only take back in those who have not got or already finished and have little chance of getting it again. Maybe target the smaller homes and then work on the bigger facilities treating each level, in highrises, as a separate facility and allow no movement between them until the place is swept. Over here, it seems to be the smaller facilites hardest hit.

 

I thought, this being the UK of course , that weekend figures aren't reported until mid week ... and this having been a bank holiday probably "mid week, next week" ...