LATEST MOAN FROM YOU AND ME - 2022

Who?

 

Before the pandemic, Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft now turned philanthropist, using all the power of data modelling, came out and said the biggest threat to mankind is not war or an asteroid strike, but a pandemic of an as yet undiscovered virus. When covid came along, all the tin hatters took this as proof that Bill Gates secretly started it. The truth is far more interesting I think (or boring, depending on what floats your boat), that Microsoft has access to so many datasets and scientific papers, and so much computing power that they can model different scenarios with a decently accurate probability. He shared this finding openly. It was largely ignored.

Completely separate to that, a study a few years ago into our preparedness for a pandemic found we were woeful under prepared, and recommendations were made to government to stock up on PPE and formulate a response plan. This was largely ignored.

When the pandemic started, the government was going to just let it run its course. A bunch of very clever scientists and data analysts told them their plan of inaction would result in many deaths. They were largely ignored. This bunch of top boffins were so concerned they had to shame the government into doing something by going public with their predictions. This despite knowing that if their recommendations were followed and as a result the death toll was lower, they'd lose credibility in the eyes of the great British pubic who would waste no time in pointing out that it was nowhere near as deadly as predicted, and the scientists were just scaremongering, because of course they work for Bill Gates.

 

We did the same as all European countries and followed the masses.
Pandemic, it was worldwide and not just in Britain.

Headless chickens sums it up for the whole world really.

I think China is still headless, but then they always were a bit weird.

 

Worldwide yes, but the UK was so slow to respond that our European neighbours mocked us. They banned us from going there before we banned them from coming here.

 

And we got the vaccine going before them.
Things we done wrong but mostly during the early stages we should banned them coming here as it was coming in from Italy.

Hindsight is 20-20.

 

This Geezer, didn't know his name though have seen him on TV recently.
The Rt Hon Steve Barclay MP

 

I think the scientific advice turned out to be a bit iffy, if they had there way we would have been locked down for a lot longer.
The political response was shambolic world wide.

 

Because fewer people died than the models predicted?

Probably because we were prevented from interacting, so the spread was slowed to slower than the models predicted it would have spread had we not been locked down.

The other thing to consider is that covid was an unknown. The models had to be, and were, refined as soon as new data came in. Very early on, the first models were based on 3 main factors. Data from previous pandemics (sorry Boris and Hancock, pandemics are NOT unprecedented, they've happened many times throughout history, including in living memory of many in government), early data on mortality rate, and early date on the rate of spread.

Those models predicted a very grim outlook if no action was taken. It was very grim anyway, even with lock down, there were still many thousands of deaths in the UK.

Of course the model at the start would not have been exactly accurate. They gave probable outcomes based on limited data. They were constantly refined as new data became available.

The media liked to pick faults with the science. But such media was not science based, and not marketed at people that like science, data, and objective reasoning. They were marketed at people that like to feel hard done by. Most people don't want to be told that the boffins are looking after them, they just want a good story that they can talk about while putting the world to rights.

 

A week ago I requested a routine prescription as soon as the GP would allow so only three or four days tablets left, can take 4/5 working days to process and be ready to pick up. Went in Friday (pharmacy in local supermarket) long queue, half an hour later, am informed IT issues, prescription is in the computer, but we cannot print it. Went back Sunday; pharmacy closed due to staff shortages. Went back yesterday afternoon, they haven't got one of the tablets at the strength requested, due to IT issues they cannot order from wholesaler, for today, nor can they get the prescription back into the NHS system (IT issues) for another pharmacy to dispense. They do have half the strength, but cannot let me have two packets without a fresh prescription. Go home contact surgery, nothing can be done until today and the receptionist said she would flag it up, but wasn't sure what or when anything could be done. So I have taken last tablet and now just have to wait for a text from the surgery telling me if, when and where I can get the prescription.