Ukraine

Any thoughts on if Putin will still be in charge by this time next year.

 

Everyone can see it's a trick. Thankfully the Ukrainians see that too.

History has demonstrated multiple times that Russia likes to back off when overwhelmed, to lure their enemy to where they want them. Unfortunately the very same history also shows that they don't care about collateral damage. I think it was both WW2 and the Napoleonic war where they retreated east at the start of winter and laid waste to everything behind them.

Their defensive position on the west bank is very strong. The Ukrainians on the other hand are very exposed. Fortunately the Ukrainians understand this and will not be rushing in too hastily.

If I was in charge of the Ukrainian side (and thank gods I'm not), I'd be doing a tactical move of my own. It wouldn't involve going into Kherson other than a small group to organise the evacuation of civilians. I'd also be carefully watching the Belarus border, and the black sea.

 

Thanks, but no good to me unfortunately. The nearest drop off point is over a hundred miles away.

 

They will make up and deliver a box for a £15 donation - using their web site - so don't be put off.

I live not far away from their base - but find it easier to donate on-line - job done in a couple of minutes.

I'm going to be the first to say it - MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE

 

I don't see Russia falling back across the river as a trap, I see it more of a sensible thing to do, bearing in mind they have been going backwards for the last 2 months or more.

Create a stalemate situation and hope to eventually claim all the territory east of the river as Russia.

 

Exactly, sensible for the Russians.

There is little doubt that the Russians will be bomb the hell out of Kherson, but not before the Ukrainian forces occupy it en masse.

It's very tricky for Ukraine from here. If they had a credible navy they could hit the Russians on the east bank from the sea, but Russia knows that, and if Ukraine sends it's feeble navy that way they'll be sunk in an instant. I'm not sure what capabilities Ukraine has, but it it's possible, if I was in charge (and I'm very glad I'm not) I'd be looking for a way to hit the Russians from behind rather than walking straight through the front door.

 

Just in case there was ever any doubt, the Russian leadership is made up of spineless weasels. Here's my logic.

When Russian forces retreated from Kherson, apparently Putin didn't appear on TV.

At the G20, Putin clearly couldn't face other world leaders. He sent Sergei Lavrov instead.

Sergei Lavrov leaves the G20 summit. Minutes later news breaks of missile strikes all over Ukraine.

So, Putin is too spineless to face anyone. Lavrov is too spineless to face anyone knowing that Russia has launched new missile strikes. The Russian military is too spineless to face anyone, choosing instead to retreat and bomb civilian buildings from a safe distance.

Meanwhile, faced with power cuts, no running water, no heating, and constant attacks, the Ukrainians don't give up. The longer this goes on, the more pathetic Russia looks.

Mind you, if I was Putin or one of his cronies, I'd be getting scared by now. He seems to be faced with an enemy that instead of being subdued, becomes more and more determined the more he tries to stop them. It can't possibly have escaped him that if the missiles keep coming, the Ukrainians may well decide it's best to neutralise the threat across the border.

 

Russian missile hits Poland.
Probably a mistake, but it could be a big escalation.

 

Nothing will happen. Some politicians will just ask Putin nicely if he wouldn't mind quieting down a bit. Like earlier today, when our esteemed leader, Rishi Sumak asked Sergei Lavrov to 'get out of Ukraine'. Strong words.

 

I think if Poland gets an apology it might die down, but if not things could get sticky.

 

The diplomatic back pedalling has already started. Apparently it was an unnamed US intelligence officer that told someone who then told someone else that it was a Russian missile that hit Poland. The Polish stance is they don't know yet what caused an explosion.

 

Well I heard it killed 2 people.

 

It seems everyone except Rishi Sunak is saying Russia didn't attack Poland, and that it was Ukrainian air defence that caused a missile to land in Poland unintentionally.

Even the American stance is that it was unintentional.

 

Biden was saying it was a Ukrainian air defence missile before the dust had settled back into the crater. If Russia does do something that affects a NATO country I believe the US will say, "Sorry, nothing to do with us.". However, if Russia does something to a US entity they will want NATO piling in to help them, and damn the consequences.