Ukraine

I wonder if the countries that donate their aging F16s will back fill with F35s and Typhoons.

It feels like Putin's plan has backfired even more than anyone could have anticipated. Plan: stop NATO from expanding east. Result: NATO expands east AND existing NATO countries have a good old clear out and bring in newer kit.

 

Putin doesnt understand whats going on in Bakhmut. Attacking forces always lose more soldiers than those defending. Bakhmut was defended by Ukraine to wear down and deplete the Russian forces before the counter offensive. It worked. I dont know anything about military tactics, but even I could see this. Putin only has one mind set and ultimately that will be why Russia loses.

 

Oh yeah, course they did.

 

The side that controls Bahkmut also controls several major roads that are of strategic value as supply routes.

Mainstream media glossed over this point when it became clear that Ukraine was losing the battle for Bahkmut, because the propaganda machine wanted us to stay optimistic about Ukraine winning overall.

Several of Ukraine's western allies advised them to withdraw months ago. Doing so would have slowed down the rate at which Ukraine was consuming ammo, but would have effectively handed much of eastern Ukraine to Russia. Peace negotiations would then have centred around handing territory in eastern Ukraine to Russia in return for an end to hostilities. In that eventuality the propaganda machine would have very swiftly pivoted, to say that the people are mostly ethnic Russian anyway and that the ceded territory is not if significant value. The western backers could then stop spending money on the war, Putin would have an off ramp, and everyone could pat themselves on the back. Except the Ukrainians, who would know that more of their territory had been stolen from them.

The Ukrainians are not currently fighting for Bahkmut. There is nothing left there to fight for. They are now, and have been for a while, much more interested in keeping control of the roads that pass by it, as these roads serve as supply routes to other parts of eastern Ukraine. They are currently trying to encircle Wagner forces there. They can achieve two important things this way. I can't tell which order of priority, but the two things are: they will take control of the main roads that serve as supply routes, and they will further demoralise Wagner forces. The latter is important for two reasons, again in no particular order. Firstly, Wagner, being technically a private company, is not bound by the same international rules of engagement as the state military, so can get away with things that the state military can't. And secondly, because Wagner's leader is already furious with Putin. If the Ukrainians can demoralise them further, it's possible that not only might they stop fighting, but they might actually cause trouble for Russia.

 

Looks like Putin has poisoned Lukashenko. I reckon Putin wants to take over Belarus.

 

I doubt that. If Lukashenko goes that Belarus will experience an uprising by the many people who hate the oppressive regime. Losing Lukashenko would be more beneficial to the west than it would be for Putin.

 

Ukraine can't win. There I said it

Ukraine war: Kyiv hit by new massive Russian drone attack - mayor

Russia is launching more and more drones and missiles, and for the most part, Ukraine is shooting them down. But for how long? Til their air defence capability runs out.

So ideally Ukraine should attack the Russian capability at source, ie destroy their drones and missiles before they are launched. But that would be a direct attack on Russia, which would allow Russia under their laws to resort to nuclear weapons.

 

It's the problem with all "limited" wars, it's not straight forward.

Really Ukraine need to bomb Iran where I think the drones are made that is way off the table for obvious reasons.
And lets face it Iran are just doing what we are doing.

It's crazy really, Ukraine can't attack Russia, but it was Russia that started it all by attacking Ukraine.
When is war not war,......when it has rules.

 

That may have been the case if Ukraine weren't given superior NATO military hardware. Russian UK Ambassador on TV telling us with a straight face that Russia is a large country with many more resources than Ukraine. Yes, Russia is a geographically large country but its economy is on par with that of Italy - just Italy alone.

Putin has lost around 47% of his energy related revenues - which aren't coming back - and he is now selling the Russian gold reserves in a desperate attempt to generate income.

I've said this before - the war will end this year - Putin will run out of money and will be served some of his polonium tea or fall feet first out of a Kremlin window.

In the end it always come down to money.

I see that Lukashenko has visited Putin again and fallen ill again. Surely he can join the dots together?

 

Why though?

It's not to enable Ukraine to win. If that was the goal, NATO would be directly involved.

It's to basically weaken Russia. Ukraine is just a pawn.

I hope Ukraine wins, but I don't see how it's possible.

 

The thing is even if Ukraine manage to push Russian forces out of their territory the war will still go on and Ukraine will still be bombed and have to fortify hundreds of miles of border.

I cant actually see an end.

 

Not going to Ukraine obviously, but I wonder if they were heading East.

 

After Russia claimed they destroyed a Ukrainian advance with 16 tanks destroyed and 3,700 troops killed or injured, just the other day, the Wagner group have come out and said "I think that these are just some wild fantasies", with Russian troops in fact "slowly" withdrawing from the village of Berkhivka on the outskirts of Bakhmut, calling it a "disgrace".
Russia has also claimed the breached dam was destroyed by Ukrainian artillery fire yet the building beside the breach are undamaged. Ukraine must have amazing shot layers in their artillery units.

 

Regarding the dam, I I just wonder if Russia is foreseeing it may get pushed back, and they are just making sure that there will be nothing left for Ukraine to take back apart from ruins.

 

Russia has a history of this strategy, including sacrificing it's own people if necessary. I think it was world war two when they retreated east and burned everything as they left.

I think it's at least in part a warning. Putin is indicating he's quite prepared to up the ante. Next on the list is the nuclear power station a few miles downstream.

I think it's time to give modern fighter jets to Ukraine. Apart from airbases which can be quite far back, aircraft don't need to worry about flooded ground.