Ukraine

They discussed that earlier today and decided that it wasn't the case. They decided that the harm and lowering of morale that it has caused far outweighed any military advantage it may bring.

 

Reading the latest updates, I now find myself wondering if it was just a stunt.

Putin has just reasserted his power and control. Wagner has been getting a bit above it's station in recent months, with their gaffer being increasingly vocal about his frustrations with Putin and his cronies. Wagner decides to advance on Moscow, but then mysteriously chickens out. Apparently after a discussion with Lukashenko of Belarus.

So Putin now gets to say he clearly has the upper hand over Wagner. It also says that if Wagner can't topple the Putin regime then nothing can. After all the only real military successes that Russia can claim can be attributed to Wagner.

I wonder what Lukashenko said that made them turn back. I wonder if he's offered to hire Wagner for money or power, but only if they leave Putin alone, because Putin looks after Lukashenko.

 

Yes, but I wouldn’t want to be in the position of having to make decisions. We get what we vote for. What’s the alternative, anarchy?

 

Another good excuse for higher prices

 

I was thinking this morning, is it pure coincidence that recently Russia moved tactical nukes to Belarus, then Russia very publicly fell out with Wagner, then Wagner did a deal with Belarus?

I'm thinking if Wagner, which has made a very public display of going rogue, were to attack Ukraine from Belarus, Putin could put his hands up and say 'nowt to do with me mate'.

 

Seemingly the FSB seized £30m of Wagner cash from their Moscow HQ yesterday.

 

Whose the FSB?

 

It's the current name for what used to be the KGB

 

Unless of course it was a put up job to allow Putin to dispose of some "supporters". The Defence minister and others of his inner circle weren't exactly leaping to support Vladimir yesterday and are thus "disloyal".

 

It would appear that Wagner groups little Saturday road trip wasn't as peaceful as some of the main media outlets would suggest.

Russian Air Force suffers significant losses in Wagner mutiny

Janes is a reputable news outlet specialising in open source intelligence. Fact checking websites rate them as usually correct, and unbiased.

It would seem that the Russian air force attacked the Wagner convey, but Wagner defended themselves effectively, shooting down several Russian aircraft. I guess that's why Putin appears to have changed his mind about pardoning them.

In other reports, flight trackers showed the private jets of key Russian figures, including Putin, getting the hell out of dodge (Moscow) on Saturday as Wagner advanced.

My earlier thoughts on this whole fiasco were that it must be a stunt, but now I think it was genuinely a failed coup. Failed, maybe, but the world has now witnessed that a small section of a private army can penetrate Russia at will, and Russia's leadership is compromised of cowards.

Personally I'm glad Wagner group did an about turn. I don't like the idea of Putin and his cronies being in charge of the world's biggest nuclear arsenal, but I dread to think what would happen if Wagner group seized control.

Hopefully both Wagner and the official Russian leadership are both weakened by this. Certainly it doesn't look good for Russia, but also, we can't ignore that Wagner chickened out too. It puts me in mind if when two idiots decide to have a fight, relying on their mates to either jump in and help or hold them back. Then they realise nobody is interested and they have to fight one on one, so they exchange a few abusive words and retreat, each claiming victory in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

 

Yes. In the statement made today, Prigozhin acknowledged that the march had resulted in the death of some Russian troops when Wagner mercenaries shot down attacking helicopters.
But he added that "not a single soldier was killed on the ground". "We are sorry that we had to strike the aircraft, but they were striking us with bombs and missiles,".

 

Time will tell. Nothing else. No statements from Russia or Ukraine are believeable per se.

 

The BBC say that Russia lost at least one fixed wing and two helicopters brought down during the Wagner mutiny. An IL-22 airborne command post, a Mi-8 electronic warfare helicopter and a KA52 attack helicopter. Wreckage has been photographed in the vicinity of Voronezh.