Ukraine

This is why we must continue to support Ukraine - Russia must and will fail.

Russian forces summarily executed 77 civilians they had arbitrarily detained during Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, a UN report says.

The UN did not document any summary executions of civilian detainees by Ukrainian forces.

 

I wonder what will happen when Ukraine finally manages to repel Russia. I have a feeling at that point Russia will start to tear itself apart from within. There are already militant factions inside Russia, led and staffed by Russians, acting to support Ukraine's efforts.

I think things will get worse before they get better. I have a feeling that's why NATO is dragging its heels on the F16 front. I think maybe the idea is to not completely implode Russia until they've worked out how to deal with any fallout.

 

I don't know. On Saturday Putin's replacement was very nearly Prigozhin, a hardcore criminal who made his millions by being exceptionally good at war. A guy who would make Putin look like a saint.

It's been in the news that the Americans knew about Wagner's plot before it happened. And some of Putin's top figures have been arrested for knowing and not telling him, or gone on the run. I'd like to think that the Americans gave the tip off needed to give Putin's forces just enough time to prevent Wagner from reaching Moscow. I have no idea if that is the case, but it seems like a good move to me. Tell them too early and Putin's side has enough time to prepare. Tell them too late, or not at all, and Prigozhin becomes the new boss of Russia. Time it just right and Putin's top brass get accused of knowing but not saying, implying involvement, and Wagner creates chaos inside Russia but without actually managing to become the new boss.

 

Good news:

Jens Stoltenberg is set to stay on as NATO’s chief for another year.

The last thing we need at this point in time is a change in leadership.

 

This is interesting. The UK were in any case replacing their Storm Shadow missiles with mora advanced kit. Instead of paying to decommission the missiles, we are sending them to Ukraine to be decommissioned by Putins forces. We need to send our entire stockpile of 1000 Storm Shadows to Ukraine.

 

This is who I said a while ago. Britain, the US and our European allies are having a good old clear out ready for newer kit. While I'm never a fan of war, seeing as one is happening anyway it's a good way for countries to renew their kit while helping Ukraine.

The problem is that our government is dumb they measure military strength by the number of pieces that can launch an attack, ie ships and planes and tanks and such, and completely overlook the fact that such pieces need ammo. This has been a major bugbear for military top brass for years. I heard the term 'hollow army' being thrown about. I hope this serves as a wake-up call that they need to look at every aspect of military strength rather than just headline numbers.

 

I see Uncle Sam is now pondering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.

 

And long range ATACMs as well. I think that Joe was waiting to see if Ukraine used Storm Shadow/Scalp on Russian territory. They haven't - they are true to their word.

I liked the quote provided by Ben at a recent NATO meeting - to encourage other NATO allies to provide kit to Ukraine. He said something like - if you're holding back weapons for a rainy day - that rainy day is now. Ben would make a good replacement for Jens.

 

Mr Putin sent a message of defiance to the West, saying "Russia counters all these external sanctions, pressures and provocations and continues to develop as never before".

If by "develop as never before" Putin means to be more like North Korea - then he's correct.

 

The latest rumblings in the news are along the lines of, Wagner is not technically the Russian army, Wagner might attack Poland from Belarus, and Belarus now has tactical nukes that Wagner might manage to seize.

I'm fairly sure I guessed this a little while ago.

So it seems several countries, and military strategists, are expressing concern that Wagner might attack, and that if they do so, both Belarus and Russia will be able to claim it's nothing to do with them, on account of Wagner not being part of their state militaries.

It's almost like Wagner now becomes ISIS or al Qaeda, in that it may be necessary to fight them, while not technically fighting Russia or Belarus. That would be a useful way for Russia to tie up western military and reduce availability of weapons to donate to Ukraine, while avoiding a direct confrontation between nations.

 

I suspect that the Russian trench soldiers will take a slightly different perspective - when 72 grenades drop from the sky right next to where they are sitting.

Washington's decision to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions is an "act of desperation" which displays "weakness", Russia's foreign ministry said on Saturday, July 8.

I think Joe made a good call here - fight fire with fire so to speak.

 

There's a good reason most civilised nations banned cluster munitions. Biden's decision demonstrates he doesn't care who gets killed or when. The thing is he actually knows why most civilised nations banned them. He knows that the bomblets don't always detonate when they're supposed to, and that they can sit in the ground unexploded for years, often long after the conflict has ended, and blow arms and legs off innocent kids that find them while out playing, and pick them up, not knowing what they are. It's not even like that's just a theoretical risk. It happened time and time again after the first gulf war.

What Biden has demonstrated is that he is a liar. He has no interest in the innocent Ukrainian people. He is only interested in keeping Russia in check, and to him, the Ukrainians are just convenient pawns to help him do that.

 

I was under the impression Russia were using cluster bombs and have also mined large areas, all war zones are dangerous after the conflict finishes, they still dig up stuff in France from WW1 and probably WW2.

There is a shortage of ammunition and time is running out for Ukraine to make significant advances before winter, it was all a bit late starting due to hesitation from the west.

Maybe napalm will be next?